Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03cb…beef politics 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% $0
other 29% −$1
crypto 18% $0
economics 6% $0
world 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage103d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $81 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $81 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $82 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $167 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 06 $84 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $84 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 18 $84 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $84 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $84 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $80 1h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $81 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $81 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $81 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $81 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $81 14d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $81 22d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $81 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $81 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $81 27d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $81 32d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $81 32d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $81 38d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 38d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $82 43d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $82 44d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $84 63d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $84 63d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $84 68d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $84 68d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $84 69d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $84 69d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $84 74d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $84 74d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $84 78d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $84 78d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $84 87d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 88d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 88d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $84 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records