Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x03cb…d2ef crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+5%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate76%42W / 13L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$39
crypto 15% −$2
other 5% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +22.0% +10.3% 100% 100% +14.4%
≤30d 7 +8.3% -2.0% 57% 43% +3.0%
≤90d 7 +8.3% -2.0% 57% 43% +3.0%
all 55 +8.3% -2.0% 76% 45% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 45% -4.3%
10% -11.4% 24% -13.4%
15% -19.9% 15% -21.8%
20% -27.8% 9% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses42 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage148d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9PM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8PM ET Jun 05 $13 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9PM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 -1%
Penguins vs. Avalanche Mar 17 $49 +$12 +24%
Sharks vs. Canadiens Mar 15 $43 +$6 +13%
New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs Mar 14 $31 +$12 +38%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Mar 13 $30 +$5 +18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pla Mar 13 $10 +$2 +23%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Mar 13 $10 $0 -3%
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. North Carolina Central Eagles Mar 13 $48 −$3 -6%
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs Mar 13 $5 +$4 +88%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 09 $10 +$11 +110%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Jan 25 $59 −$43 -73%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Jan 25 $106 +$6 +6%
XRP Up or Down - January 24, 4AM ET Jan 24 $13 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - January 24, 3AM ET Jan 24 $16 +$1 +4%
Nuggets vs. Bucks Jan 24 $66 +$8 +12%
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Jan 24 $28 +$3 +11%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jan 24 $89 +$1 +1%
Rockets vs. Pistons Jan 24 $21 +$6 +30%
Heat vs. Trail Blazers Jan 23 $18 +$2 +12%
Spurs vs. Jazz Jan 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Bulls vs. Timberwolves Jan 23 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 5PM ET Jan 23 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jan 22 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 22 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 22 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 22 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 22 $1 $0 +36%
Raptors vs. Kings Jan 22 $18 +$1 +6%
Hawks vs. Grizzlies Jan 22 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 22 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 22 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 22 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 22 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 22 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 22 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 22 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 22 $1 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 22 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 22 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 22 $1 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 22 $1 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 22 $2 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 22 $1 $0 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $25 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $23 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 24h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $11 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 15d
Penguins vs. Avalanche SELL Penguins 97¢ $61 94d
Penguins vs. Avalanche BUY Penguins 78¢ $49 94d
Sharks vs. Canadiens SELL Sharks 85¢ $49 96d
Sharks vs. Canadiens BUY Sharks 75¢ $43 96d
New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs SELL San Diego State Aztecs 94¢ $43 96d
New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs BUY San Diego State Aztecs 68¢ $31 96d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs SELL Astralis 100¢ $35 97d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs BUY Astralis 85¢ $30 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 158 history records