Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
03 0x03c9…d8c1 sports 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$892 (+30%) realized +$892 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%76W / 56L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$154
14 days+$804
30 days+$859
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$641
other 44% +$182
world 3% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +5.1% -4.9% 53% 47% -2.0%
≤30d 132 +32.9% +20.3% 58% 51% +16.4%
≤90d 132 +32.9% +20.3% 58% 51% +16.4%
all 132 +32.9% +20.3% 58% 51% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.3% 51% +16.4%
10% ← realistic here +8.7% 35% +5.3%
15% -1.8% 27% -4.9%
20% -11.4% 21% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.68 per $1 lost it wins $3.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$892
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses76 / 56
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage15d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $35 +$18 +50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$26 +74%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $35 +$19 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 −$21 -61%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $35 −$21 -60%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $27 +$3 +11%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $35 +$11 +30%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $35 +$11 +31%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $19 +$24 +127%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $35 +$4 +12%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $35 −$4 -10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 −$2 -7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 $0 -1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $35 −$1 -4%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $35 +$12 +34%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $35 +$11 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$4 +13%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 +$5 +14%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $35 +$24 +67%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $35 −$14 -40%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $35 +$25 +71%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $34 −$1 -2%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $35 +$12 +35%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $35 +$5 +15%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $35 +$7 +20%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$2 -5%
Sweden vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
CD Castellón leading at halftime? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$34 -97%
Spread: FH Hafnarfjordur (-2.5) Jun 14 $0 +$1 +119%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $35 +$26 +74%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $35 +$30 +87%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $35 +$13 +37%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $35 +$3 +9%
Thor Akureyri vs. IBV Vestmannaeyjar: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $35 +$9 +25%
Will Thor Akureyri win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 +$6 +17%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 +$6 +18%
Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$2 -6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $35 −$1 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $35 −$9 -24%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $35 −$2 -6%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $35 −$4 -12%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $35 −$21 -61%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $44 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 52¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $50 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $35 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $35 1h
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 3h
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 90¢ $59 3h
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 51¢ $35 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $11 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 69¢ $32 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 69¢ $11 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $35 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 2¢ $13 22h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 5¢ $35 22h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $35 22h
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-23? SELL No 87¢ $18 42h
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-23? SELL No 87¢ $12 42h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $45 42h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $35 42h
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 78¢ $27 42h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? SELL No 86¢ $30 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? SELL No 86¢ $15 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY No 65¢ $35 44h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 28¢ $43 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $39 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $35 2d
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 33¢ $31 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $32 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 364 history records