Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
03 0x03c9…044a other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$8
crypto 17% $0
tech 17% +$1
politics 16% +$1
economics 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 8 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$642
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage60d
Avg bet$423
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $643 $642 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $641 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $279 +$1 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $360 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 07 $239 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 07 $394 +$1 +0%
Will Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary elec May 21 $610 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 04 $632 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $643 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $641 7d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $279 11d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $360 11d
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $394 27d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 27d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $239 27d
Will Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary elec BUY No 100¢ $610 39d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 99¢ $632 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $642.42 · official $642.42 (match) · 18 history records