Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03c8…3d82 crypto 571 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$669 (-9%) realized −$675 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%266W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$66
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$238
sports 13% −$285
other 12% −$15
world 1% −$72
weather 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 +2.9% -6.9% 55% 55% -6.3%
≤30d 137 +2.9% -6.9% 55% 55% -6.3%
≤90d 151 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 53% -7.7%
all 570 -7.7% -16.5% 47% 46% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 46% -17.2%
10% -24.5% 45% -25.2%
15% -31.8% 44% -32.4%
20% -38.5% 42% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$675
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses266 / 304
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)570 / 571
History coverage146d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 43¢ 52¢ $28 $34 +$6 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$37 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$40 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$25 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$25 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$24 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$25 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$11 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$11 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$15 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$12 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$14 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $29 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $66 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $29 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $29 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $29 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.19 · official $32.88 · 1582 history records