Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x03c8…0e01 other 524 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 228d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,763 (+17%) realized +$13,823 · open −$1,060
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate35%181W / 333L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$3,999now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$154
14 days−$169
30 days−$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$2,279
politics 31% +$970
world 22% +$5,122
culture 3% −$452
tech 3% +$270
crypto 2% +$123
sports 2% +$3,587
economics 1% −$194
finance 1% −$283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +11.6% +1.0% 17% 17% -28.0%
≤30d 13 +7.7% -2.5% 15% 15% -17.8%
≤90d 64 +6.4% -3.8% 23% 19% +14.9%
all 514 +8.0% -2.3% 35% 23% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 23% +6.7%
10% -11.7% 19% -3.6%
15% -20.2% 17% -12.9%
20% -28.0% 14% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$33 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$3,999
Realized+$13,823
Unrealized−$1,060
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses181 / 333
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)514 / 524
History coverage228d ⚠
Avg bet$145
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 78¢ $1,500 $2,332 +$832 (+56%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 22¢ $1,500 $668 −$832 (-56%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes $142 $198 +$55 (+39%)
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $257 $152 −$104 (-41%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 15¢ $300 $150 −$150 (-50%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $200 $145 −$55 (-28%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $150 $142 −$8 (-5%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes 40¢ 48¢ $120 $142 +$22 (+19%)
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Yes 10¢ $48 $56 +$8 (+17%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.? Yes 14¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+48%)
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $455 −$27 -6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $188 −$46 -25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 14 $6 +$24 +400%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 07 $1,150 −$15 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $252 −$21 -8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $275 −$275 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $24 −$4 -19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $280 −$150 -54%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $115 +$361 +313%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 16 $200 −$109 -55%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $226 +$540 +239%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026? May 14 $49 +$4 +8%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 10000 packages during the o May 13 $51 −$11 -22%
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 11000 packages during the o May 13 $54 +$21 +38%
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15?? May 13 $120 −$39 -33%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 11 $420 −$13 -3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $101 +$171 +169%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $401 −$19 -5%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week? May 11 $23 −$22 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 10 $452 +$2,522 +559%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 08 $60 −$56 -94%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 05 $136 −$94 -70%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? May 04 $83 −$26 -31%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? May 03 $41 −$41 -100%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 03 $126 +$200 +159%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 01 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? May 01 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $90 +$16 +17%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 30 $676 −$86 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $99 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 28 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 28 $115 −$3 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $412 −$124 -30%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1500? Apr 17 $50 −$22 -45%
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? Apr 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30? Apr 09 $130 −$130 -100%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? Apr 09 $300 −$137 -46%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $14 −$5 -36%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $274 −$127 -46%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $428 3m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $455 13m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $142 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $188 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes $37 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $24 5d
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? BUY Yes $3 7d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 8d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 9d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $30 9d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 11d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $4 11d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,998.65 · official $3,998.65 (match) · 3500 history records