Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03c6…3dd2 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$260 (-5%) realized −$83 · open −$177
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,823now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$983
other 7% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 42% -25.9%
≤30d 19 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 42% -25.9%
≤90d 19 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 42% -25.9%
all 19 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 42% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 42% -25.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 42% -33.0%
15% -33.5% 42% -39.5%
20% -40.0% 37% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$165 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,823
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$177
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions10
Markets (closed)19 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer Tristan Boyer 41¢ 44¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Toby Samuel 51¢ 52¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris Billy Harris 67¢ 68¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Roman Safiullin 65¢ 65¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 65¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 65¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Atlanta Dream 56¢ $200 $12 −$188 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $203 +$210 +104%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 +$148 +73%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $203 −$203 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $203 +$232 +114%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $204 −$200 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +146%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $203 +$161 +79%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Veronika Podrez Jun 24 $202 +$110 +55%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson Jun 24 $203 +$214 +105%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig Jun 24 $202 +$82 +41%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jun 24 $202 −$200 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Sara Bejlek Jun 24 $203 −$7 -3%
Taylor Fritz vs. Jan Choinski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $203 −$7 -3%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Roman Safiullin 65¢ $202 39m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $202 41m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 65¢ $202 41m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 67¢ $202 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 56¢ $203 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer BUY Tristan Boyer 41¢ $204 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Toby Samuel 51¢ $203 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $203 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $203 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 65¢ $202 3h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 4h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $204 4h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $203 5h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $203 5h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai BUY Zhuoxuan Bai 63¢ $202 9h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Veronika Podrez BUY Maria Timofeeva 64¢ $202 10h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $102 10h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $102 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson BUY Heather Watson 48¢ $203 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 13h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $203 15h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $203 15h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 70¢ $202 15h
Taylor Fritz vs. Jan Choinski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $203 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Sara Bejlek BUY Zeynep Sonmez 51¢ $203 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,823.29 · official $1,824.34 (match) · 42 history records