Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03c6…d0e1 crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$82 (-1%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%36W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$7
sports 40% −$76
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
other 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 63 -1.3% -10.7% 57% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.2%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses36 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage564d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in May? Jun 03 $26 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of March? Apr 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? Apr 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Netflix reach $368 in January? Feb 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $550 end of January? Feb 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $555 end of November? Dec 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 10 $2,135 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $2,143 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 10 $2,199 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? Mar 05 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $853 −$1 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $857 −$2 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $2,599 −$3 -0%
Solana above $200 on February 21? Feb 22 $2 $0 +2%
Will ETHBTC be more than .033 on February 7? Feb 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $2 $0 +1%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Jan 21 $1 $0 +0%
Was Trump hacked? Jan 21 $2 $0 +0%
Solana above $190 on January 17? Jan 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will LA wildfires burn 70-80k acres by Sunday? Jan 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10? Jan 11 $1 $0 +1%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 11 $3 $0 +0%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07? Dec 11 $36 −$1 -2%
Raptors vs. Heat Dec 11 $3 $0 -3%
Rams vs. 49ers Dec 11 $6 $0 -0%
Nets vs. Grizzlies Dec 10 $6 $0 -0%
Bills vs. Lions Dec 10 $13 $0 +2%
Rangers vs. Sabres Dec 10 $5 $0 -0%
Kings vs. Islanders Dec 10 $92 −$70 -77%
Panthers vs. Kraken Dec 09 $2 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Celtics Dec 09 $4 $0 -12%
Magic vs. Bucks Dec 09 $3 $0 -7%
Bruins vs. Jets Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in May? BUY No 99¢ $26 31d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 59d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of March? BUY No 99¢ $4 93d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $26 93d
Will Netflix reach $368 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 147d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $550 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $25 148d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $555 end of November? BUY No 100¢ $31 207d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,133 225d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $2,135 225d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2,141 225d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2,143 225d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,196 225d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,199 225d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $22 248d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 99¢ $3 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? BUY No 100¢ $3 330d
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 363d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 392d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 392d
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 394d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? BUY No 99¢ $1 424d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 431d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in March? BUY No 100¢ $2 455d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in March? BUY No 100¢ $2 456d
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? BUY No 99¢ $2 466d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? BUY No 98¢ $2 466d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 480d
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 480d
Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? BUY No 100¢ $1 481d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.34 · official $27.34 (match) · 149 history records