Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:57:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x03c6…ce0a
sports · 238 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$6 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$200
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions217
Markets (closed)21 / 238
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day253.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 217 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Clutchain 56¢ 90¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 43¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Taro Daniel 40¢ 45¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? No 71¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 47¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 37¢ 39¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 51¢ 53¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 54¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Under 70¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Ben Shelton 46¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Metizport 37¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 32¢ 33¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Galions 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Galions 76¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +145%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +61%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +194%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% −$6
other 38% −$7
crypto 4% $0
world 3% −$1
politics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 13¢ $1 2m
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 70¢ $1 2m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2m
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 21¢ $1 3m
Will EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $1 5m
Set 1 Winner: Montgomery vs Krejcikova BUY Montgomery 36¢ $1 9m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $1 11m
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY UCAM Esports Club 10¢ $1 11m
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Metizport 37¢ $1 11m
Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Montgomery (+1.5) BUY Montgomery 51¢ $1 11m
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 14m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 71¢ $1 16m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 16m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 16m
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs SELL Nexus 100¢ $1 21m
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 37¢ $1 21m
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 45¢ $1 21m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 62¢ $1 28m
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $1 29m
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $1 31m
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 31m
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $1 31m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $1 31m
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 31m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $2 32m
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 32m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 33m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 33m
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 34m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 72¢ $1 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +10.1% -0.4% 71% 57% -0.5%
≤30d 21 +10.1% -0.4% 71% 57% -0.5%
≤90d 21 +10.1% -0.4% 71% 57% -0.5%
all 21 +10.1% -0.4% 71% 57% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover253.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 57% -0.5%
10% ← realistic here -9.9% 38% -10.0%
15% -18.6% 33% -18.7%
20% -26.6% 33% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.84 · official $199.85 (match) · 310 history records