Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03c5…5f61 sports 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,946 (-8%) realized −$10,947 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%82W / 127L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$656per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$2,004est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,191
7 days−$1,478
14 days−$7,077
30 days−$11,860
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$20,586
other 9% +$8,726
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +17.9% +6.7% 40% 40% -13.0%
≤30d 209 -3.9% -13.0% 39% 39% -17.4%
≤90d 209 -3.9% -13.0% 39% 39% -17.4%
all 209 -3.9% -13.0% 39% 39% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 39% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 39% -25.3%
15% -28.9% 38% -32.5%
20% -35.9% 36% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$720) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$768 vs −$589 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$702
Realized−$10,947
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses82 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$2,004
Open positions3
Markets (closed)209 / 212
History coverage28d
Avg bet$656
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 54¢ $424 $467 +$43 (+10%)
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) KRÜ Blaze 23¢ 19¢ $198 $164 −$34 (-17%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 34¢ 30¢ $79 $71 −$8 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $488 +$654 +134%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2,033 +$3,220 +158%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $601 +$1,241 +206%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $734 −$720 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $2,840 −$2,782 -98%
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $500 −$7 -2%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $57 −$56 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $3,423 +$3,598 +105%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $1,978 −$1,948 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $632 −$620 -98%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $465 −$457 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $52 +$68 +133%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $512 +$1,231 +240%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,808 +$285 +16%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 14 $1,166 −$1,160 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $859 −$846 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $174 −$172 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $304 −$298 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $149 −$148 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $233 −$230 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,389 −$2,341 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3,368 +$3,268 +97%
Overwatch: Geekay Esports vs Al Qadsiah (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Jun 13 $181 +$333 +184%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1,708 −$1,680 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $852 −$839 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $926 −$907 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $932 −$911 -98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $286 −$281 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $449 +$729 +162%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 12 $1,413 −$1,392 -98%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $165 +$355 +215%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $342 −$335 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,408 +$1,967 +140%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $74 +$140 +189%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $246 −$242 -98%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $150 −$8 -5%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $458 +$522 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $69 +$150 +216%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $155 +$192 +124%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $445 +$443 +100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $179 −$3 -2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1,219 −$1,201 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $203 −$199 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,164 −$1,145 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $319 −$312 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $59 −$58 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 10 $294 −$290 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $128 +$275 +216%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $146 +$330 +227%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 10 $332 +$378 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 23¢ $61 43m
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 23¢ $62 1h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 23¢ $38 1h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 23¢ $41 1h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $488 5h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 34¢ $81 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $430 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $601 10h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $734 12h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $2,840 14h
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 50¢ $500 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $2,033 20h
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) BUY Gentle Mates 23¢ $57 21h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 48¢ $1,422 28h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 48¢ $2,001 29h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,978 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $632 33h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus BUY Minaur/Norrie 37¢ $30 39h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus BUY Minaur/Norrie 37¢ $435 40h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $13 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $499 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 82¢ $1,166 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Young Ninjas 21¢ $52 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $1,808 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $859 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $174 2d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Eintracht Spandau 22¢ $97 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Virtus.pro 65¢ $149 2d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Eintracht Spandau 25¢ $113 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 47¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $702.19 · official $684.89 · 396 history records