Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:05:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03c2…f725 other 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$287 (+17%) realized +$287 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$64
14 days+$118
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$183
sports 4% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -30.8% -37.4% 40% 20% -15.6%
≤30d 22 -38.4% -44.2% 32% 18% -3.0%
≤90d 22 -38.4% -44.2% 32% 18% -3.0%
all 22 -38.4% -44.2% 32% 18% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.2% 18% -3.0%
10% -49.6% 18% -12.3%
15% -54.5% 18% -20.8%
20% -58.9% 18% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$39 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage11d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $28 −$27 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $243 +$22 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $214 +$3 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$19 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $150 +$208 +138%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $278 −$223 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $220 +$375 +170%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $128 +$85 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $81 −$79 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $134 −$76 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $32 −$31 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $33 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes $1 9m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $265 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $171 16h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $46 16h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $214 17h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $3 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $4 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $3 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $3 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $3 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $3 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $3 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $3 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $3 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $69 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $24 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $49 33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $78 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 35h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $9 40h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $358 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records