Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x03ba…ab49
sports · 238 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$413 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$364 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$23
Realized+$364
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses129 / 108
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage52d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 1 History 237 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days+$144
14 days+$144
30 days+$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Paris Basketball 66¢ 61¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Turma do Pagode (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Playoffs Turma do Pagode 18¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Weibo Gaming 61¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
AHL: Springfield Thunderbirds vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins 51¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 Under 48¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
AHL: Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. Ontario Reign Coachella Valley Firebirds 55¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Avalanche 59¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Fnatic 36¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? Over 45¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
LoL: Bubliki vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season ZeroZone Gaming 17¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Brose Bamberg vs. Ratiopharm Ulm Ratiopharm Ulm 24¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Aurora 42¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? Over 47¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Partizan 64¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) Shopify Rebellion 33¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Tofas vs. Petkim Spor Petkim Spor 67¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs BIG (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Sharks 30¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Under 45¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs MOUZ 53¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs PlayTime 70¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) HANJIN BRION 27¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
ASP Promitheas vs. Iraklis Iraklis 37¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5 Over 10¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) CR Flamengo 67¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Jun 14 $26 +$93 +365%
Piratas de Quebradillas vs. Capitanes de Arecibo Jun 14 $25 +$26 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $25 +$19 +76%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $25 +$30 +119%
Atleticos de San German vs. Criollos de Caguas Jun 13 $25 +$12 +46%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $25 +$34 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $25 +$9 +34%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$12 +46%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$10 +40%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 28 $25 +$19 +74%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $25 −$25 -98%
SC RASTA Vechta vs. Alba Berlin May 24 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $25 +$30 +119%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5 May 24 $25 +$9 +34%
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) May 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $25 +$8 +32%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $25 +$37 +146%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 24 $25 +$18 +70%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $25 +$17 +67%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) May 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 May 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $26 −$25 -98%
FK Oleksandriya vs. FK Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih: O/U 1.5 May 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Thespa Gunma (-1.5) May 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 23 $25 +$19 +76%
Unics Kazan vs. BC Zenit May 23 $25 +$39 +152%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League May 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Wuerzburg vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn May 22 $51 $0 +0%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5 May 22 $25 +$18 +70%
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Supernova (+1.5) May 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) May 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $25 +$25 +97%
Game Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 22 $25 +$30 +119%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? May 22 $25 +$29 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $25 +$24 +93%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Falcons Force (+1.5) May 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 22 $25 +$36 +140%
LoL: Winthrop University vs Maryville University (BO5) - North America May 22 $51 +$23 +44%
AHL: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins vs. Springfield Thunderbirds May 22 $26 +$53 +206%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 21 $25 +$16 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% +$270
other 13% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 66¢ $25 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 56¢ $25 13h
Piratas de Quebradillas vs. Capitanes de Arecibo BUY Capitanes de Arecibo 49¢ $25 14h
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa BUY Quimsa 21¢ $26 14h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 65¢ $25 23h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY B8 45¢ $25 31h
Atleticos de San German vs. Criollos de Caguas BUY Atleticos de San German 68¢ $25 38h
Partizan vs. BC Dubai BUY Partizan 64¢ $25 45h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 74¢ $25 47h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $26 2d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $25 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 40¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 71¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 68¢ $25 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $44 16d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 42¢ $25 20d
SC RASTA Vechta vs. Alba Berlin BUY SC RASTA Vechta 36¢ $25 20d
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) BUY PARIVISION 27¢ $26 20d
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) BUY HANJIN BRION 27¢ $26 21d
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $25 21d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $25 21d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $25 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 48¢ $25 21d
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) BUY CR Flamengo 67¢ $25 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 BUY Under 45¢ $25 21d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 75¢ $25 21d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Canadiens 58¢ $25 21d
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 40¢ $25 21d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 21d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 18¢ $26 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +43.1% +29.5% 69% 69% +30.3%
≤30d 81 +8.9% -1.5% 56% 53% -0.7%
≤90d 237 +2.8% -7.0% 54% 53% -3.9%
all 237 +2.8% -7.0% 54% 53% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 53% -3.9%
10% -15.9% 52% -13.1%
15% -24.0% 46% -21.5%
20% -31.4% 37% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.11 · official $23.11 (match) · 391 history records