Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:32:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
03 0x03b9…7746 economics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$102 (+3%) realized +$104 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$466per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 91% −$1
sports 8% +$100
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 6 +11.4% +0.8% 33% 33% -6.9%
all 7 +9.7% -0.7% 29% 29% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 29% -7.1%
10% -10.2% 29% -16.0%
15% -18.9% 14% -24.1%
20% -26.8% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$0 · ×237.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×95.14 per $1 lost it wins $95.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$104
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage101d
Avg bet$466
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 28 $1,242 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 11 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 06 $1,349 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 23 $250 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $150 +$48 +32%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 09 $144 +$52 +36%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 30 $298 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $49 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $248 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $247 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $248 32d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $248 32d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $249 37d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $249 37d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $249 48d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $249 48d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $249 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $249 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $249 53d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $250 66d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $250 66d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $250 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $250 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $50 73d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $150 73d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $50 74d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY G2 75¢ $150 74d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $201 74d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $202 74d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $199 74d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $199 80d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Top Esports 71¢ $6 81d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 72¢ $144 81d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $150 81d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $150 81d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $149 81d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $149 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.50 · official $46.50 (match) · 40 history records