Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:19:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x03b6…2c93 sports 239 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$339 (-1%) realized −$339 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%112W / 127L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$328est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$193
14 days−$1,107
30 days−$1,093
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$818
world 7% +$610
politics 5% −$392
other 1% −$181
tech 1% −$124
weather 1% −$160
crypto 0% −$10
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -18.5% -26.2% 36% 27% -23.5%
≤30d 237 -5.2% -14.2% 47% 35% -12.3%
≤90d 239 -4.9% -14.0% 47% 36% -12.3%
all 239 -4.9% -14.0% 47% 36% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 36% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 27% -20.7%
15% -29.7% 19% -28.3%
20% -36.6% 11% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$38 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$339
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses112 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$328
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage32d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Jun 19 $50 −$22 -45%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $100 +$7 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $58 −$14 -24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $76 −$10 -12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $40 −$13 -31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $40 +$13 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $38 +$2 +6%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $52 +$26 +51%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $47 +$5 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $40 +$6 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$3 +54%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $7 −$1 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$3 -33%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8 +$2 +19%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $19 −$11 -57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $71 −$52 -73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $222 −$37 -16%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $48 −$22 -45%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $214 −$11 -5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $83 −$42 -51%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $151 +$6 +4%
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -11%
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? Jun 12 $40 −$23 -58%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $19 −$17 -90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $30 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $131 −$18 -14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $106 +$38 +36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $336 +$8 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $130 −$45 -34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $59 −$8 -13%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $50 −$11 -22%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $128 −$4 -3%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $95 +$25 +26%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $51 +$24 +47%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $207 −$12 -6%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $43 +$27 +62%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $31 +$63 +207%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $30 −$7 -22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $57 −$28 -48%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $40 −$2 -6%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $20 +$14 +69%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $143 −$17 -12%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $161 −$11 -7%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $13 −$1 -10%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Maanshan: Koki Matsuda vs Artem Alekseychuk Jun 10 $8 +$64 +784%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Team Nemesis 90¢ $107 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 84¢ $100 2h
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $27 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $44 2h
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $58 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 36¢ $8 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 38¢ $9 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 74¢ $59 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 84¢ $67 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 52¢ $28 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $40 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 15¢ $12 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 80¢ $53 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $40 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 58¢ $40 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 53¢ $38 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 98¢ $78 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $52 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 61¢ $52 18h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 54¢ $47 18h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $47 18h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ $40 18h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 97¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $6 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 89¢ $6 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 98¢ $7 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 36¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 698 history records