trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +13.2% | +2.4% | 100% | 100% | +2.4% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +6.4% | -3.7% | 100% | 20% | -3.8% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -31.9% | -38.4% | 58% | 25% | -34.8% |
| all | 12 | -31.9% | -38.4% | 58% | 25% | -34.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -38.4% | 25% | -34.8% |
| 10% | -44.3% | 17% | -41.0% |
| 15% | -49.7% | 8% | -46.7% |
| 20% | -54.6% | 8% | -52.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | $57 | $58 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 58¢ | 67¢ | $40 | $46 | +$6 (+14%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | $23 | $25 | +$2 (+10%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez | Jun 10 | $8 | +$1 | +13% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Jun 01 | $8 | $0 | +4% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? | May 21 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Maple Leafs vs. Senators | May 07 | $6 | +$4 | +61% |
| Canucks vs. Sharks | Apr 15 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Bruins vs. Lightning | Apr 15 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET | Apr 01 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | Apr 01 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? | Apr 01 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? | Mar 29 | $10 | +$2 | +24% |