Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03b4…294f sports 15 markets active 7d ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-7%) realized −$22 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$2
politics 33% +$8
sports 16% −$13
other 7% −$3
crypto 4% −$7
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 100% +2.4%
≤30d 5 +6.4% -3.7% 100% 20% -3.8%
≤90d 12 -31.9% -38.4% 58% 25% -34.8%
all 12 -31.9% -38.4% 58% 25% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.4% 25% -34.8%
10% -44.3% 17% -41.0%
15% -49.7% 8% -46.7%
20% -54.6% 8% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -79% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage102d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 58¢ 67¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 10 $8 +$1 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 +4%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $8 $0 +4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 21 $5 $0 +3%
Maple Leafs vs. Senators May 07 $6 +$4 +61%
Canucks vs. Sharks Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bruins vs. Lightning Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Sabres vs. Lightning Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 29 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.73 · official $128.73 (match) · 131 history records