Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
03 0x03b1…67f4 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +157% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +115% what you keep after slip
Net edge+115%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$38
sports 42% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+132.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +157.3% +132.8% 50% 50% +69.3%
≤30d 4 +157.3% +132.8% 50% 50% +69.3%
≤90d 4 +157.3% +132.8% 50% 50% +69.3%
all 4 +157.3% +132.8% 50% 50% +69.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +132.8% 50% +69.3%
10% +110.5% 50% +53.1%
15% +90.2% 50% +38.3%
20% +71.5% 25% +24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +87% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +157% · $-wt +87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$6 · ×4.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.99 per $1 lost it wins $4.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $73 $74 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $35 +$12 +36%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $6 +$44 +784%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 28 $7 −$7 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $5 −$4 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $23 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $74 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $35 23h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 23h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $7 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL South Africa 3¢ $0 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 32¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.62 · official $96.45 (match) · 9 history records