Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x03ad…dfbd politics 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 506d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$60
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% +$14
sports 23% −$22
weather 8% +$43
other 5% −$42
crypto 4% +$16
tech 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +58.7% +43.6% 67% 67% +70.7%
≤30d 6 +58.7% +43.6% 67% 67% +70.7%
≤90d 13 +14.0% +3.2% 46% 46% -9.1%
all 37 +5.8% -4.3% 32% 19% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 19% -8.9%
10% -13.4% 19% -17.6%
15% -21.8% 19% -25.6%
20% -29.5% 19% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

506d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage506d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? No 70¢ 67¢ $29 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $29 +$28 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$18 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 14 $16 +$17 +107%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +124%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16? May 18 $3 +$6 +185%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14? May 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? May 09 $9 +$13 +146%
76ers vs. Celtics May 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 17 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $253 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $268 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Sep 23 $19 −$1 -5%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 20 $17 $0 -3%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Sep 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on Septembe Sep 20 $19 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 14? Sep 14 $13 −$1 -4%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Sep 13 $23 $0 -2%
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Sep 11 $20 +$16 +82%
Solana all time high in April? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 14 $14 $0 -3%
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? Apr 13 $8 $0 -4%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Manitoba in the next Cana Apr 12 $6 $0 -4%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 11 $8 $0 -2%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $17 $0 -1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Yoon reinstated as President before July? Mar 28 $8 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $11 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $3 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 70¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $29 32h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 47¢ $16 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 33d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14? BUY No 70¢ $12 35d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 37d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $11 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? BUY Up 39¢ $9 43d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 45d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 72¢ $21 47d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $264 152d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $264 152d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $258 152d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $259 152d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $254 152d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $253 152d
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $267 152d
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $268 152d
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? SELL Yes 40¢ $18 268d
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? BUY Yes 42¢ $19 268d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? SELL No 70¢ $16 270d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 72¢ $17 270d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 271d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on Septembe SELL No 62¢ $17 271d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on Septembe BUY No 69¢ $19 271d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 271d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.31 · official $27.31 (match) · 79 history records