Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x03a8…4ed2 crypto 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$250 (-6%) realized −$250 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate72%137W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$302
world 0% $0
other 0% −$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +4.7% -5.2% 83% 58% -8.7%
≤30d 83 +4.7% -5.2% 83% 58% -8.7%
≤90d 83 +4.7% -5.2% 83% 58% -8.7%
all 190 -1.1% -10.5% 72% 55% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 55% -16.3%
10% -19.1% 39% -24.3%
15% -26.9% 25% -31.6%
20% -34.1% 11% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses137 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)190 / 190
History coverage168d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 190 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$17 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$17 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$7 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$9 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 406 history records