Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x03a0…4727 sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 645d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%36W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$41
14 days+$17
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$136
other 17% −$530
world 14% +$207
politics 7% +$4
finance 5% +$203
crypto 4% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -34.9% -41.1% 50% 50% -55.1%
≤30d 7 -42.5% -48.0% 43% 43% -10.7%
≤90d 16 -36.5% -42.6% 38% 38% +15.9%
all 69 -25.0% -32.1% 52% 41% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 41% -11.0%
10% -38.6% 22% -19.5%
15% -44.5% 13% -27.3%
20% -50.0% 10% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$36 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

645d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses36 / 33
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage645d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $31 +$9 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $304 +$57 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? May 09 $33 −$3 -8%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 09 $52 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 28 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Apr 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $519 +$194 +37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 12 $200 +$203 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Mar 10 $30 −$12 -42%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $40 −$16 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 07 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 07 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-23? Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Mavericks vs. Heat Dec 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Women's Sports" or "Transgender" at the FIFA World Cup Dec 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Trump say "Democrat" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5? Dec 06 $100 +$10 +10%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Nov 27 $500 −$320 -64%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Nov 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on November 24? Nov 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Nov 25 $510 +$489 +96%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Nov 23 $20 +$3 +15%
76ers vs. Bucks: 1H Moneyline Nov 21 $9 +$10 +108%
Nets vs. Pacers Nov 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Nov 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Magic Nov 19 $42 −$14 -32%
Bulls vs. Pistons Nov 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bulls vs. Nuggets Nov 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Pacers vs. Pistons Nov 19 $46 +$10 +23%
Kings vs. Spurs Nov 17 $19 +$6 +30%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Nov 16 $15 −$12 -80%
Lakers vs. Bucks Nov 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Nets vs. Magic Nov 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Wizards vs. Rockets Nov 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Wizards vs. Pistons Nov 11 $16 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Hornets Nov 11 $20 +$20 +100%
Grizzlies vs. Celtics Nov 10 $25 −$8 -32%
Pacers vs. Warriors Nov 10 $20 +$4 +20%
Nets vs. Knicks Nov 09 $20 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $40 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 8¢ $31 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 55¢ $187 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 59¢ $175 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 27¢ $51 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $253 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $8 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 14d
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $29 39d
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 39d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? SELL No 9¢ $39 39d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 11¢ $52 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $3 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records