Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x039f…80cf sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 281d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,190 (+6%) realized +$2,319 · open −$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,066per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$558est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$3,528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 281d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$4,309
other 25% −$8,285
crypto 0% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.7% -0.7% 50% 50% +13.7%
≤30d 10 +15.9% +4.8% 50% 50% +6.6%
≤90d 10 +15.9% +4.8% 50% 50% +6.6%
all 15 -22.7% -30.1% 33% 33% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 33% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 33% -28.2%
15% -42.9% 33% -35.1%
20% -48.5% 33% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,614 vs −$1,705 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$3,528
Realized+$2,319
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$558
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage281d
Avg bet$2,066
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 43¢ 42¢ $3,658 $3,528 −$129 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $2,860 +$4,987 +174%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $509 +$491 +96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $9,208 +$5,700 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $4,038 −$4,012 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $761 −$261 -34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2,882 −$2,820 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $2,374 +$1,881 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $145 −$140 -96%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $1,554 −$1,527 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$9 +181%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 11 $5,316 −$5,316 -100%
Will Paxos win the USDH ticker? Nov 11 $846 −$846 -100%
Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 11 $1,126 −$1,126 -100%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 11 $496 −$496 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $509 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 89¢ $2,112 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 88¢ $694 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 88¢ $929 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 88¢ $1,233 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 85¢ $1,594 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 74¢ $945 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 74¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 74¢ $135 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 74¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $176 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $906 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $94 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $1,857 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $185 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $794 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $553 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $754 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $207 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $834 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $50 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $24 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $24 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $18 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $147 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $240 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $240 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $97 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $96 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,528.23 · official $3,528.23 (match) · 168 history records