Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x039e…0df7 politics 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 638d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$924per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 89% −$12
politics 8% +$1
other 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 2 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 0% -8.2%
all 14 -6.9% -15.8% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage638d
Avg bet$924
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $34 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by March 31? May 07 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 02 $12,214 −$12 -0%
Berachain airdrop in 2024? Mar 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? Oct 05 $95 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? Oct 05 $125 $0 +0%
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? Oct 03 $93 $0 +0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $319 $0 -0%
GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? Oct 02 $250 $0 +0%
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? Oct 01 $106 $0 +0%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Sep 30 $105 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Sep 30 $119 $0 +0%
Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $85 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 91 history records