Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x039e…b714 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$230 (+28%) realized +$230 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$23
sports 48% +$275
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -7.7% -16.5% 35% 32% +18.2%
≤30d 31 -7.7% -16.5% 35% 32% +18.2%
≤90d 31 -7.7% -16.5% 35% 32% +18.2%
all 31 -7.7% -16.5% 35% 32% +18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 32% +18.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 32% +6.9%
15% -31.8% 32% -3.4%
20% -38.4% 26% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$11 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage6d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$25 +48%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $13 −$7 -54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 +$38 +115%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -93%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $30 −$11 -38%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $9 −$8 -85%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $26 −$17 -65%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 20 $22 −$19 -86%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -83%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$13 -42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +67%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$4 -70%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$29 -28%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $35 +$49 +143%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 −$22 -94%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $28 −$16 -57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 −$12 -74%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$66 +337%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 +$31 +91%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 +$14 +86%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $92 +$194 +212%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $21 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $18 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $15 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $36 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $3 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $14 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $27 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records