Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

03 0x039d…daca other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$52 (+52%) realized +$52 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip

Net edge+43%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day4.9pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+48.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+64.3%	+48.6%	100%	100%	+66.6%
≤30d	3	+64.3%	+48.6%	100%	100%	+66.6%
≤90d	3	+64.3%	+48.6%	100%	100%	+66.6%
all	3	+64.3%	+48.6%	100%	100%	+66.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+48.6%	100%	+66.6%
10%	+34.4%	67%	+50.6%
15%	+21.4%	67%	+36.1%
20%	+9.5%	67%	+22.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 77% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +84% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +64% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$17 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$40

Realized+$52

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage2d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day4.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	82¢	81¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	83¢	84¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$30	+$40	+130%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$20	+$10	+51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$10	+$1	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$30	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$10	2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$70	3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	35¢	$15	5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$5	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$10	45h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.99 · official $40.00 (match) · 11 history records