Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x039a…b09d
sports · 264 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$2,991 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,904 · open +$87
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$227
Realized+$2,904
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses103 / 158
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions3
Markets (closed)261 / 264
History coverage788d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 3 History 261 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$220
14 days+$614
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 99¢ $50 $103 +$53 (+107%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 50¢ 80¢ $40 $64 +$24 (+60%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Under 21¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 44¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Under 45¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$41 +133%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $62 +$35 +56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $61 +$40 +66%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $102 +$54 +53%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 07 $31 −$1 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $30 −$19 -61%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $37 −$15 -40%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 07 $102 −$31 -31%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $30 +$54 +181%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $102 +$95 +93%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $114 +$685 +600%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $100 +$114 +114%
76ers vs. Celtics May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $11 +$1 +6%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $35 −$9 -27%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 26 $45 +$20 +44%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-05-15? May 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Rennes finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings? May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 26 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 18 $145 −$86 -59%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $17 +$43 +258%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 02 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-30? May 02 $51 +$41 +82%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $550 +$799 +145%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $82 −$82 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% +$1,009
sports 40% +$2,238
crypto 4% −$246
politics 3% −$12
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $32 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 24h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 90¢ $46 24h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $62 26h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 44¢ $31 47h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 45¢ $20 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 21¢ $7 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 82¢ $13 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 64¢ $40 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $61 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $52 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 49¢ $24 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 81¢ $62 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 81¢ $10 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 81¢ $4 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 81¢ $5 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $102 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 51¢ $22 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 41¢ $37 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 84¢ $12 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 77¢ $29 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 39¢ $31 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 69¢ $34 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $30 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 88¢ $55 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 64¢ $79 10d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 40¢ $102 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -39.2% -45.0% 25% 25% -35.1%
≤30d 43 -25.8% -32.9% 28% 23% -5.8%
≤90d 95 -22.0% -29.4% 32% 27% +3.3%
all 261 +0.2% -9.4% 39% 36% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 36% +5.9%
10% -18.0% 35% -4.3%
15% -26.0% 34% -13.5%
20% -33.2% 32% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.06 · official $227.06 (match) · 733 history records