Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0398…e181 other 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$96 (-12%) realized −$93 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%49W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$32
14 days+$3
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$15
sports 16% −$77
crypto 6% −$18
politics 4% −$14
world 1% −$6
weather 1% −$4
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +144.3% +121.1% 77% 77% +59.8%
≤30d 54 -13.7% -22.0% 31% 31% -23.2%
≤90d 146 -13.4% -21.6% 34% 33% -22.6%
all 146 -13.4% -21.6% 34% 33% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 33% -22.6%
10% -29.1% 32% -30.0%
15% -36.0% 29% -36.8%
20% -42.2% 29% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses49 / 97
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions26
Markets (closed)146 / 172
History coverage90d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 66¢ 65¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-67%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +134%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$9 +874%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +388%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +172%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $6 +$3 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $7 +$4 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? May 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 +$5 +30%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$19 +185%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $8 +$25 +307%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: Both Teams to Score May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score May 24 $3 −$3 -98%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 3d
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.68 · official $68.67 (match) · 387 history records