Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
03 0x0398…8633 politics 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$175 (-16%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$30
sports 18% −$185
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 3 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 4 -27.6% -34.5% 0% 0% -27.9%
all 4 -27.6% -34.5% 0% 0% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 0% -27.9%
10% -40.8% 0% -34.8%
15% -46.5% 0% -41.1%
20% -51.7% 0% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$54 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage31d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 27 $269 −$17 -6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $291 −$3 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $315 −$10 -3%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $188 −$185 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL Yes 9¢ $252 4m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 88¢ $289 5m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 88¢ $291 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 62¢ $305 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 62¢ $315 3h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY Yes 9¢ $269 3h
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $188 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records