Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
03 0x0397…3ed4 crypto 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$854 (+13%) realized +$856 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%49W / 66L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$543
crypto 24% −$172
other 14% +$220
sports 6% +$123
politics 4% +$128
finance 2% −$29
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +34.1% +21.4% 9% 9% -22.2%
≤30d 36 +39.9% +26.5% 14% 14% +33.1%
≤90d 72 -5.2% -14.2% 17% 15% -12.6%
all 115 +16.2% +5.2% 43% 40% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 40% +2.0%
10% -4.9% 36% -7.7%
15% -14.1% 31% -16.6%
20% -22.5% 23% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$19 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$578
Realized+$856
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses49 / 66
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)115 / 123
History coverage106d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $200 $228 +$28 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $160 $129 −$31 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $65 $74 +$9 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $65 $62 −$3 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$81 +3948%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $4 +$29 +712%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$32 +1548%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $304 +$205 +67%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $10 +$21 +207%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 24 $717 +$319 +44%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 22 $94 +$67 +72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $548 +$244 +44%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 19 $110 +$39 +35%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? Apr 18 $20 −$1 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 18 $30 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 16 $15 +$16 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 40h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 40h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 40h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 40h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 40h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 40h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 40h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 40h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 40h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $578.30 · official $578.30 (match) · 304 history records