Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0396…c028 sports 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%25W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$3
other 23% −$5
politics 21% −$3
crypto 8% −$2
economics 8% −$1
world 6% −$1
culture 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 48 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 247 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses25 / 222
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage171d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $34 $0 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 10 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $140 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $173 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $33 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $170 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 08 $36 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $73 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 01 $100 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $71 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $68 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $33 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 29 $107 −$1 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $95 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $33 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 27 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 26 $24 $0 +1%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 25 $316 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 23 $30 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $142 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 22 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 21 $77 +$2 +2%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 21 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 11d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $11 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $36 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $36 19d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $23 26d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $23 26d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $34 34d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 35d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $31 68d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $31 69d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $27 69d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $27 69d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $25 69d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $25 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 69d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $24 69d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $24 69d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $30 69d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $30 70d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $24 70d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $24 70d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $33 70d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $33 70d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $27 70d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $27 70d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $28 70d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $28 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 835 history records