Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0394…d325 other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$922 (+12%) realized +$921 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$1,028
sports 22% +$968
world 1% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +3.2% -6.7% 35% 32% -8.2%
≤30d 34 +3.2% -6.7% 35% 32% -8.2%
≤90d 34 +3.2% -6.7% 35% 32% -8.2%
all 34 +3.2% -6.7% 35% 32% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 32% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 29% -17.0%
15% -23.8% 26% -25.0%
20% -31.2% 24% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$137 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$921
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage3d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $174 $175 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $909 −$813 -89%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $204 −$164 -80%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,110 +$438 +40%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $501 −$391 -78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $708 +$402 +57%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $102 +$137 +135%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $202 +$120 +59%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $57 +$75 +133%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $270 −$270 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $56 −$56 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $306 −$155 -51%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $294 −$247 -84%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $57 −$35 -62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $103 −$50 -48%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $46 $0 +1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$159 -78%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 −$2 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $706 +$147 +21%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$90 -89%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $102 −$72 -71%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$352 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$492 +480%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $470 +$151 +32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$282 +276%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$42 -41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$78 -77%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$49 -48%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$255 +249%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $176 16m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $40 22m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 6¢ $40 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $909 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,548 13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 18¢ $102 13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 66¢ $475 13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,110 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,110 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $708 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $239 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 19h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $322 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $151 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $46 22h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.11 · official $175.11 (match) · 81 history records