Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0392…ab02 other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$409 (-9%) realized −$498 · open +$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%19W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$645now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days+$220
14 days+$220
30 days−$433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$187
sports 24% −$358
world 3% −$83
crypto 2% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -4.8% -13.9% 40% 35% -3.6%
≤30d 54 -15.4% -23.5% 35% 31% -19.4%
≤90d 54 -15.4% -23.5% 35% 31% -19.4%
all 54 -15.4% -23.5% 35% 31% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 31% -19.4%
10% -30.8% 26% -27.1%
15% -37.5% 24% -34.1%
20% -43.6% 22% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$44 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$645
Realized−$498
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses19 / 35
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 58
History coverage23d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $268 $360 +$92 (+34%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $239 $237 −$2 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $168 +$104 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +63%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $252 +$58 +23%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$12 -77%
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $10 +$40 +389%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $63 +$39 +62%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $414 +$25 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $121 −$80 -66%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $40 −$9 -23%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $194 −$9 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $469 +$74 +16%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $28 +$3 +11%
Colombia to win the second half? Jun 18 $65 −$55 -85%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $152 +$116 +76%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$64 +42%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $68 −$67 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $56 +$66 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$30 +20%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $51 +$42 +82%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 +$24 +390%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 16 $3 −$1 -21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$48 +78%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$1 +3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$34 +134%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$66 +216%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $51 +$258 +503%
UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion Jun 01 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $133 −$131 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $241 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $271 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $271 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $168 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $102 20h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 20h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 22h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 22h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 23h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 98¢ $310 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 24h
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $252 24h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 61¢ $63 27h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $440 28h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $414 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $41 28h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $121 30h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $31 42h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $308 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $645.46 · official $645.46 (match) · 116 history records