trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -33.4% | -39.8% | 0% | 0% | -50.9% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -19.4% | -27.1% | 20% | 0% | -29.5% |
| ≤90d | 31 | +5.6% | -4.4% | 45% | 32% | -9.7% |
| all | 137 | +16.8% | +5.7% | 62% | 52% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +5.7% | 52% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -4.4% | 43% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -13.7% | 36% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -22.1% | 27% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? | No | 73¢ | 72¢ | $146 | $145 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $49 | $49 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $50 | $48 | −$3 (-5%) |
| Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | No | 76¢ | 81¢ | $8 | $8 | +$1 (+7%) |
| Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 71¢ | 96¢ | $4 | $5 | +$1 (+35%) |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Jun 27 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 27 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Spread: France (-2.5) | Jun 26 | $169 | −$168 | -100% |
| Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $391 | −$2 | -1% |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? | Jun 05 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | May 14 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 | May 03 | $5 | +$4 | +83% |
| Spread: Knicks (-6.5) | Apr 24 | $10 | +$9 | +86% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Apr 20 | $18 | +$12 | +67% |
| Hornets vs. Magic | Apr 17 | $118 | −$118 | -100% |
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 13 | $9,614 | −$10 | -0% |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 13 | $9,623 | −$10 | -0% |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 13 | $9,633 | −$10 | -0% |
| Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 13 | $9,643 | −$10 | -0% |
| Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 13 | $9,653 | −$10 | -0% |
| Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 13 | $9,662 | −$10 | -0% |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 13 | $9,672 | −$10 | -0% |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 13 | $9,682 | −$10 | -0% |
| Magic vs. Celtics | Apr 12 | $26 | −$25 | -100% |
| Spread: Celtics (-16.5) | Apr 12 | $25 | +$25 | +100% |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 10 | $696 | −$1 | -0% |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic | Apr 10 | $27 | +$13 | +48% |
| Thunder vs. Clippers | Apr 10 | $207 | +$93 | +45% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 08 | $776 | +$2 | +0% |
| Raptors vs. Pistons | Apr 01 | $20 | +$13 | +67% |
| Clippers vs. Bucks | Mar 31 | $110 | +$15 | +14% |
| EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Mar 29 | $600 | $0 | -0% |
| Spread: Raptors (-3.5) | Mar 29 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | Mar 29 | $298 | +$2 | +0% |
| Pelicans vs. Raptors | Mar 29 | $112 | +$38 | +33% |
| Clippers vs. Pacers | Mar 29 | $117 | +$33 | +28% |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 27 | $98 | −$1 | -1% |
| Pelicans vs. Pistons | Mar 27 | $32 | +$18 | +54% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Mar 27 | $396 | +$2 | +0% |
| Rockets vs. Bulls | Mar 23 | $92 | −$92 | -100% |
| Nets vs. Kings | Mar 23 | $7 | +$3 | +52% |
| Magic vs. Hornets | Mar 22 | $195 | +$105 | +54% |
| Bucks vs. Hawks | Mar 19 | $15 | +$5 | +32% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 19 | $28 | +$2 | +8% |
| Spread: Heat (-3.5) | Mar 19 | $26 | +$24 | +96% |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa | Mar 19 | $40 | +$19 | +47% |
| Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 19 | $59 | +$1 | +2% |
| Kings vs. Clippers | Mar 14 | $88 | −$88 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Nuggets | Mar 14 | $75 | +$35 | +47% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 11? | Mar 14 | $299 | +$1 | +0% |
| Missouri State Bears vs. Florida International Golden Panthers | Mar 11 | $2 | +$3 | +103% |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Virginia Tech Hokies | Mar 11 | $2 | +$3 | +132% |
| Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils | Mar 11 | $2 | +$3 | +155% |
| Maryland Terrapins vs. Oregon Ducks | Mar 11 | $2 | +$3 | +162% |
| Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Stanford Cardinal | Mar 11 | $2 | +$3 | +211% |