Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:00:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
03 0x0390…e9fd other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$991 (-1%) realized −$992 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate24%26W / 81L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$732per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$10
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$1,171
politics 35% −$32
sports 18% +$268
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% −$75
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -17.3% -25.2% 9% 1% -12.6%
all 107 -1.9% -11.3% 24% 15% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 15% -10.7%
10% -19.8% 14% -19.2%
15% -27.5% 11% -27.0%
20% -34.6% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$1,015) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$26 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$546
Realized−$992
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses26 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage127d
Avg bet$732
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $545 $546 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,298 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $428 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $959 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,556 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $870 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,702 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 04 $915 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,451 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $907 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 20 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $3,291 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,122 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,689 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,744 −$5 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,265 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,460 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,965 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,218 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $424 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $2,415 −$2 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $40 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $1,180 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $1,179 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $2,001 −$2 -0%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $45 +$65 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $424 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $425 2h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $425 4h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $426 6h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $425 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $426 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $427 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $428 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $545 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $470 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $471 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $890 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $891 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $958 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $959 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $856 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $857 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $869 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $870 9d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $764 14d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $765 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $825 15d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $826 15d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $899 16d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $900 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $913 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $915 17d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $637 17d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $638 17d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $906 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $546.38 · official $546.38 (match) · 347 history records