Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x038f…d733 other 34 markets active 1d ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-2%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%5W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$2
world 30% +$1
politics 12% −$1
sports 9% −$18
economics 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 30% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 -2.6% -11.9% 27% 0% -11.2%
all 34 -6.0% -14.9% 15% 0% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -11.6%
10% -23.1% 0% -20.0%
15% -30.5% 0% -27.8%
20% -37.3% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses5 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage251d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $63 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $127 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $8 $0 +3%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $29 −$10 -34%
Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 19 $1 $0 -29%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Nov 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $57 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Oct 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 12 $8 $0 -6%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $23 −$2 -9%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 11 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 09 $22 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Oct 08 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 32h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $32 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $20 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $1 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $39 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $16 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $44 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $45 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $45 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $40 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $40 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records