Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:59:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x038f…ecc5
sports · 175 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$311 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$395 · open −$59
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$60
Realized+$395
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses68 / 101
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)169 / 175
History coverage241d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 6 History 169 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$66
14 days+$54
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $28 $24 −$5 (-16%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 20¢ 7¢ $42 $14 −$27 (-66%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-32%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $21 $7 −$14 (-67%)
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-57%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Thunder 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Spurs 6¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Cavaliers 26¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Over 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will CF América win on 2026-05-10? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) Thunder 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Spurs 42¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Spurs 26¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Spurs 50¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$13 +84%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $29 +$17 +58%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$13 +91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $22 +$22 +98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 +$20 +139%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 10 $51 −$2 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 09 $14 −$12 -85%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 09 $24 −$9 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $37 +$51 +137%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 06 $21 +$10 +50%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 06 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 05 $20 −$15 -73%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 05 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 04 $9 −$4 -42%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 04 $14 −$14 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $23 +$28 +124%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 30 $51 −$42 -82%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $14 −$8 -61%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? May 30 $43 −$27 -64%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? May 30 $14 −$8 -56%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? May 30 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $22 −$5 -23%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $36 −$19 -52%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 30 $29 −$3 -11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 29 $50 +$59 +119%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 19 $15 +$40 +262%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 May 18 $10 +$8 +83%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5 May 18 $20 +$15 +76%
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) May 18 $20 +$34 +166%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5 May 12 $24 +$24 +97%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) May 12 $3 −$2 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 12 $20 +$2 +11%
Will CF América win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 +$19 +364%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $20 +$4 +22%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 10 $32 +$31 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% +$56
sports 32% +$354
other 20% −$50
finance 8% −$30
crypto 5% +$12
tech 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 1h
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 54¢ $15 4h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Knicks 87¢ $45 4h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 54¢ $29 7h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $28 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 8h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 9h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $3 29h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $20 29h
Will USA win the World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $44 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $22 34h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $34 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $15 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $5 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $42 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $29 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL Yes 30¢ $53 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $50 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 34¢ $49 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $47 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $52 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -7.4% -16.2% 47% 35% +4.9%
≤30d 42 -13.6% -21.9% 36% 31% -7.6%
≤90d 116 -17.2% -25.1% 34% 31% -4.1%
all 169 +3.4% -6.5% 40% 36% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 36% +2.4%
10% -15.4% 33% -7.4%
15% -23.6% 30% -16.3%
20% -31.1% 28% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.07 · official $59.09 (match) · 509 history records