Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x038f…17a1 crypto 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$176 (-11%) realized −$175 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$299
sports 18% +$83
other 10% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.1% -3.1% 60% 60% +13.1%
≤30d 5 +7.1% -3.1% 60% 60% +13.1%
≤90d 5 +7.1% -3.1% 60% 60% +13.1%
all 15 -4.6% -13.7% 53% 27% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 27% -20.3%
10% -22.0% 20% -27.9%
15% -29.5% 13% -34.9%
20% -36.4% 13% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$47 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$175
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage400d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Under 79¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $69 +$45 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $96 −$12 -12%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $100 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $74 −$30 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $107K on May 27? May 27 $44 +$5 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on May 26 at 5 PM ET? May 26 $42 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $43 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on May 25 at 5 PM ET? May 25 $39 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $382 −$152 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on May 25 at 5 PM May 25 $191 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 24? May 24 $255 −$111 -43%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 24 at 5 P May 24 $40 −$4 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 24? May 24 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $101 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $69 32h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $84 40h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 76¢ $100 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $96 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? BUY Up 53¢ $20 396d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? SELL Up 46¢ $20 396d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? BUY Up 56¢ $24 396d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? SELL Down 44¢ $24 396d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? BUY Down 90¢ $49 397d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $107K on May 27? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 397d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $107K on May 27? SELL Yes 97¢ $48 397d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $107K on May 27? BUY Yes 87¢ $43 397d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on May 26 at 5 PM ET? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 397d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $107K on May 27? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 397d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on May 26 at 5 PM ET? BUY Yes 97¢ $42 398d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? SELL Up 87¢ $43 398d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? BUY Up 86¢ $43 398d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on May 25 at 5 PM ET? SELL Yes 89¢ $43 398d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on May 25 at 5 PM ET? BUY Yes 82¢ $39 399d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? SELL Up $39 399d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? BUY Up 15¢ $198 399d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on May 25 at 5 PM SELL Yes 27¢ $198 399d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on May 25 at 5 PM BUY Yes 26¢ $191 399d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? SELL Up 28¢ $191 399d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? BUY Up 27¢ $184 399d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 24? SELL Up 17¢ $25 399d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 24? BUY Up 67¢ $100 400d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on May 24 at 5 P SELL Yes 70¢ $36 400d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.37 · official $99.37 (match) · 52 history records