trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 50% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 40% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 40% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 25 | -8.7% | -17.4% | 48% | 4% | -11.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.4% | 4% | -11.5% |
| 10% | -25.3% | 0% | -19.9% |
| 15% | -32.5% | 0% | -27.7% |
| 20% | -39.1% | 0% | -34.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 92¢ | $50 | $51 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $25 | $0 | -2% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 17 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 06 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $75 | +$1 | +1% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 06 | $134 | −$2 | -1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 05 | $3 | $0 | -2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Dec 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? | Apr 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? | Apr 19 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? | Apr 17 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Apr 15 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? | Apr 14 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? | Apr 13 | $8 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | Mar 21 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday? | Mar 19 | $8 | +$1 | +15% |
| Will 'The Brutalist' win 4-5 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | Mar 03 | $17 | −$8 | -51% |
| Coastal Carolina vs. Southern Mississippi | Mar 03 | $33 | $0 | +0% |