Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x038b…1ee2
other · 35 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%
Chart Positions 4 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
O/U 0.5 Rounds Under 27¢ 25¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Cristian Romero be in Argentina's Starting 11? No 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 14 $1 $0 -17%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -34%
Will Mexico score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -85%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -23%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Elliot Anderson be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 $0 -31%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +107%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $4 +$5 +112%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +258%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 04 $2 +$3 +174%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 66% −$16
sports 28% +$7
crypto 7% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $3 2h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 17¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 3h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 5h
Will Elliot Anderson be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 5¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 13h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 27¢ $2 17h
Will Cristian Romero be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 12¢ $1 18h
Will Elliot Anderson be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 6¢ $1 18h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $1 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -21.9% -29.3% 23% 23% -13.3%
≤30d 31 -25.7% -32.7% 23% 23% -15.0%
≤90d 31 -25.7% -32.7% 23% 23% -15.0%
all 31 -25.7% -32.7% 23% 23% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 23% -15.0%
10% -39.2% 23% -23.1%
15% -45.1% 23% -30.6%
20% -50.4% 19% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.81 · official $4.81 (match) · 65 history records