Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:53:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0388…6f05 other 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate69%104W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1,763now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$47
14 days−$23
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$258
politics 19% −$324
sports 18% −$19
world 10% +$72
tech 3% +$26
finance 2% −$43
economics 1% +$18
weather 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -10.9% -19.4% 67% 67% -14.6%
≤30d 31 +1.6% -8.1% 90% 39% -7.2%
≤90d 151 -2.9% -12.1% 69% 16% -9.7%
all 151 -2.9% -12.1% 69% 16% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 16% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1,763
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses104 / 47
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)151 / 159
History coverage90d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 97¢ 100¢ $339 $348 +$9 (+3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 91¢ 94¢ $318 $327 +$9 (+3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 90¢ 88¢ $315 $310 −$5 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 88¢ $312 $310 −$2 (-1%)
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 97¢ 99¢ $194 $199 +$5 (+2%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $88 $94 +$6 (+6%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $316 +$34 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $313 +$37 +12%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 11 $215 −$119 -55%
Will Nick Albares be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Jun 08 $69 +$8 +11%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Heath Fulkerson advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 08 $66 +$5 +8%
Will Perú Libre (PL) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber o Jun 08 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $320 −$124 -39%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $102 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 08 $312 +$38 +12%
Exact Score: Liechtenstein 0 - 3 Cyprus? Jun 07 $313 +$37 +12%
Will FlyQuest win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 07 $251 +$27 +11%
Exact Score: Albania 2 - 0 Luxembourg? Jun 06 $269 +$32 +12%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $80 −$79 -100%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $313 +$37 +12%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $49 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Greece? Jun 04 $227 +$19 +8%
Will Calvin Lee advance from the CA-34 primary election? Jun 04 $93 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: Poland 1 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 03 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e Jun 03 $269 +$16 +6%
Named storm forms before hurricane season? Jun 02 $72 +$5 +7%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $313 +$37 +12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $332 +$18 +5%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $103 +$9 +9%
Will Sholdon Daniels be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? May 27 $67 +$2 +3%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $323 +$27 +8%
Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election May 20 $274 +$14 +5%
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 20 $83 +$10 +12%
Will Sam Couvillon be the Republican nominee for GA-09? May 20 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Como finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 17 $97 −$96 -100%
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $54 +$6 +12%
Will Czechia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $108 +$9 +8%
Will United Kingdom be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $6 $0 +5%
Will Albania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $55 +$3 +5%
Will Norway be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $59 +$3 +5%
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $107 +$10 +9%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 15 $101 −$50 -50%
Will Latvia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $52 +$4 +8%
Will Luxembourg be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $93 +$8 +8%
Will Montenegro be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 12 $210 +$17 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 11 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Club Libertad win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $187 +$14 +7%
Spread: Fujieda MYFC (-2.5) May 06 $67 +$2 +3%
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Ehime FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $74 +$4 +5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 05 $180 +$20 +11%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 4.5 May 05 $326 +$24 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $20 42m
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $149 1h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $8 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 91¢ $319 2d
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 97¢ $84 6d
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 97¢ $48 6d
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 97¢ $61 6d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 43¢ $96 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $316 9d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $313 9d
Will Nick Albares be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? SELL No 99¢ $77 9d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $100 9d
Will Heath Fulkerson advance from the CA-04 primary election? SELL No 100¢ $72 9d
Will Perú Libre (PL) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber o SELL No 100¢ $25 9d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? SELL No 98¢ $5 9d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 57¢ $195 9d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $313 9d
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 89¢ $312 10d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $316 10d
Exact Score: Liechtenstein 0 - 3 Cyprus? BUY No 89¢ $313 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 93¢ $80 11d
Exact Score: Albania 2 - 0 Luxembourg? BUY No 89¢ $269 12d
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $313 13d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Greece? BUY No 92¢ $227 14d
Exact Score: Poland 1 - 0 Nigeria? BUY No 89¢ $89 14d
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $49 14d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY No 94¢ $215 15d
Will FlyQuest win LCS 2026 Spring? BUY No 90¢ $251 15d
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $102 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,762.53 · official $1,762.53 (match) · 353 history records