Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:46:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0386…0f18 crypto 1742 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate91%1588W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days+$105
14 days+$27
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$44
other 0% +$14
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 1% -8.7%
≤30d 908 +0.3% -9.2% 97% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 1742 -0.3% -9.8% 91% 15% -9.4%
all 1742 -0.3% -9.8% 91% 15% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 15% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 13% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 7% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1588 / 154
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1742 / 1742
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1742 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records