Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x0385…9070
other · 48 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$79 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$76 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage98d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 2 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 22¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Sevilla FC 1 - 0 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Levante UD 2 - 1 CA Osasuna? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 +$4 +43%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $6 +$6 +105%
Exact Score: Sevilla FC 1 - 0 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Levante UD 2 - 1 CA Osasuna? May 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $10 +$42 +413%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 +$7 +128%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: CA Osasuna 1 - 2 FC Barcelona? May 02 $5 +$36 +711%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $46 +$32 +70%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 02 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Apr 15 $10 +$36 +364%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 +$8 +165%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $20 +$16 +79%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $50 −$46 -92%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Athletic Club vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $5 +$23 +456%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $10 −$9 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% +$56
sports 24% +$61
world 11% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 4h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 11h
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 25d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 27d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 31d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 34d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 34d
Will Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 34d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 35d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 35d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 35d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 35d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 35d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 35d
Exact Score: Sevilla FC 1 - 0 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 35d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 35d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 35d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 35d
Exact Score: Levante UD 2 - 1 CA Osasuna? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 36d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 38d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 41d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 41d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 41d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 41d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 41d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 41d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +166.3% +141.0% 100% 100% +141.5%
≤30d 4 +33.2% +20.5% 50% 50% +39.0%
≤90d 44 +18.6% +7.3% 39% 39% +12.3%
all 46 +13.7% +2.9% 37% 37% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 37% +7.1%
10% -6.9% 37% -3.1%
15% -15.9% 37% -12.5%
20% -24.2% 33% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.44 · official $25.44 (match) · 153 history records