Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
03 0x0383…4a34 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,257 (+180%) realized +$1,383 · open −$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +288% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +251% what you keep after slip
Net edge+251%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$887
crypto 42% +$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+250.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +509.6% +451.6% 100% 100% +451.6%
≤30d 2 +287.8% +250.8% 100% 100% +211.9%
≤90d 2 +287.8% +250.8% 100% 100% +211.9%
all 2 +287.8% +250.8% 100% 100% +211.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +250.8% 100% +211.9%
10% +217.3% 100% +182.1%
15% +186.6% 100% +154.8%
20% +158.5% 100% +129.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +245% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +288% · $-wt +245% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$604 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$1,383
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage25d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $198 $72 −$126 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $199 +$1,013 +510%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 04 $294 +$194 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $204 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $199 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 24¢ $488 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $294 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.09 · official $81.10 · 5 history records