Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
03 0x0380…d03c other 10 markets active 2d ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-17%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$2
world 33% $0
sports 17% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -47.3% -52.3% 50% 0% -68.3%
≤30d 5 -34.0% -40.3% 60% 20% -50.4%
≤90d 7 -23.0% -30.3% 71% 14% -35.2%
all 7 -23.0% -30.3% 71% 14% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 14% -35.2%
10% -37.0% 14% -41.4%
15% -43.1% 0% -47.1%
20% -48.6% 0% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage78d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 27 $1 $0 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 16 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.19 · official $3.19 (match) · 21 history records