Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x0380…4d8a other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$172 (-6%) realized −$171 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days−$220
14 days−$231
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$474
sports 27% +$242
world 23% +$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 40% -32.7%
≤30d 13 +4.5% -5.4% 69% 38% -12.2%
≤90d 13 +4.5% -5.4% 69% 38% -12.2%
all 13 +4.5% -5.4% 69% 38% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 38% -12.2%
10% -14.5% 31% -20.6%
15% -22.8% 31% -28.2%
20% -30.3% 23% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$139 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$171
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage30d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $182 +$104 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$8 +8%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 23 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $136 +$52 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $389 −$388 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $152 +$90 +60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $151 +$24 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $251 +$21 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $239 +$14 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $249 −$10 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $151 −$150 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $408 −$7 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $249 +$159 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 55m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $182 2h
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $389 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $152 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 86¢ $151 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $251 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $253 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $239 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $239 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $249 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $151 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $401 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $408 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $249 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.32 · official $199.32 (match) · 27 history records