Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x0380…073d
other · 560 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$69,476 -32%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$48,787 · open −$258,158
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$113,741
Realized−$48,787
Unrealized−$258,158
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses52 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$283
Open positions497
Markets (closed)121 / 560
Avg bet$390
Trades / day2336.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 497 History 121 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48,787
7 days−$48,787
14 days−$48,787
30 days−$48,787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 99¢ 98¢ $4,689 $4,673 −$15 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,099 $4,095 −$4 (-0%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 74¢ 76¢ $3,549 $3,652 +$103 (+3%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 25¢ 99¢ $641 $2,527 +$1,887 (+294%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 11¢ 99¢ $282 $2,518 +$2,236 (+794%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 3¢ 99¢ $57 $2,052 +$1,995 (+3473%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 0¢ 80¢ $0 $1,846 +$1,846 (+0%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 70¢ $80 $1,788 +$1,708 (+2129%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 97¢ $1,702 $1,699 −$3 (-0%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 60¢ $186 $1,688 +$1,502 (+808%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,491 $1,495 +$5 (+0%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 7¢ 99¢ $98 $1,448 +$1,351 (+1380%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 97¢ $260 $1,265 +$1,004 (+386%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 81¢ 81¢ $1,238 $1,226 −$12 (-1%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $766 $1,169 +$403 (+53%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 26¢ 24¢ $1,179 $1,104 −$75 (-6%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 2¢ 89¢ $27 $1,093 +$1,066 (+3889%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 0¢ 44¢ $0 $1,074 +$1,074 (+0%)
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,050 $1,061 +$11 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 3¢ 76¢ $41 $1,040 +$998 (+2408%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 4¢ 48¢ $78 $1,034 +$956 (+1230%)
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,029 $1,032 +$2 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 96¢ $31 $1,005 +$974 (+3156%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 66¢ $1,229 $1,000 −$230 (-19%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 57¢ $49 $961 +$912 (+1855%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $436 −$163 -37%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $430 −$212 -49%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $466 −$8 -2%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $458 −$41 -9%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $451 −$305 -68%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $495 −$255 -51%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $487 −$385 -79%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $451 −$176 -39%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $106 −$49 -47%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $130 −$120 -92%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $126 −$52 -41%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $128 −$29 -23%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $126 −$105 -83%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $126 −$90 -72%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $118 −$75 -63%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $119 −$93 -78%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $123 −$57 -46%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $120 −$36 -30%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $127 −$33 -26%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $129 −$97 -75%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $130 −$125 -96%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $107 −$88 -83%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $107 −$36 -33%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $496 −$425 -86%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $448 −$355 -79%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $499 −$214 -43%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $484 −$263 -54%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $478 −$418 -88%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $500 −$213 -43%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $494 −$210 -42%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $480 −$395 -82%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $227 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $227 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $227 $0 +0%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $630 +$301 +48%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $929 −$336 -36%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $922 −$303 -33%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $930 +$1 +0%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $928 −$901 -97%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $930 −$591 -64%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 12 $857 −$857 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $2,887 −$2,887 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $1,228 −$1,227 -100%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $2,830 −$2,830 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $7,100 −$7,097 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $2,887 −$2,887 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on June 14? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 73% −$278,467
politics 12% −$1,810
sports 8% −$16,455
tech 4% −$6,514
economics 1% +$467
world 1% −$3,063
weather 1% −$358
culture 0% −$745
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 27¢ $556 0m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 73¢ $606 0m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 73¢ $854 0m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $1,979 0m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 26¢ $173 1m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 74¢ $572 1m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 74¢ $33 1m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $779 1m
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY No 97¢ $1 1m
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY No 75¢ $1 1m
Will Freecs win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY No 100¢ $1 1m
Will Nongshim RedForce win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY No 100¢ $1 1m
Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY No 98¢ $1 1m
Will DRX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY No 100¢ $1 1m
Will BRION win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY No 100¢ $1 1m
Will Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY No 99¢ $1 1m
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 3m
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 3m
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 3m
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 3m
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 3m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 25¢ $0 3m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $1 3m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 75¢ $1 3m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $1 3m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 25¢ $0 3m
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 3m
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 3m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 75¢ $1 3m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $1 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -36.3% -42.4% 43% 6% -81.8%
≤30d 121 -36.3% -42.4% 43% 6% -81.8%
≤90d 121 -36.3% -42.4% 43% 6% -81.8%
all 121 -36.3% -42.4% 43% 6% -81.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2336.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.4% 6% -81.8%
10% -47.9% 3% -83.6%
15% ← realistic here -53.0% 2% -85.1%
20% -57.6% 1% -86.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113,740.54 · official $121,607.30 · 3500 history records