Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
03 0x0377…ae31 crypto 963 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$369 (+5%) realized +$367 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%409W / 551L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day42.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days+$86
14 days+$29
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$15
weather 22% +$100
other 4% −$127
sports 1% −$20
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -2.3% -11.6% 61% 49% -4.8%
≤30d 248 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 39% -12.4%
≤90d 960 -10.3% -18.8% 43% 34% -10.3%
all 960 -10.3% -18.8% 43% 34% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 34% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 32% -18.9%
15% -33.7% 30% -26.7%
20% -40.2% 26% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$367
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses409 / 551
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)960 / 963
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 960 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 72¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.22 · official $19.94 (match) · 3500 history records