Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0374…1782 sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,890 (-73%) realized −$2,832 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%3W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$1,444
other 43% −$1,580
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-49.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -44.6% -49.9% 11% 11% -83.3%
≤30d 28 -44.6% -49.9% 11% 11% -83.3%
≤90d 28 -44.6% -49.9% 11% 11% -83.3%
all 28 -44.6% -49.9% 11% 11% -83.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.9% 11% -83.3%
10% -54.7% 11% -84.9%
15% -59.1% 11% -86.4%
20% -63.1% 11% -87.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$140 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized−$2,832
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 25
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions6
Markets (closed)28 / 34
History coverage16d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Phoenix Mercury 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Toronto Tempo 12¢ 12¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
ITF Taipei: Funa Kozaki vs Gyeong Seo Lee Funa Kozaki 24¢ 21¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-70%)
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Nicolas Villalon Nicolas Villalon 14¢ 8¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Francesca Jones Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Si Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $102 +$398 +388%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Alex Barrena Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $11 +$44 +388%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Arthur Gea Jun 22 $96 −$96 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $82 −$82 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Moreno De Alboran vs Harold Mayo Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $20 +$97 +473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien Jun 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 22 $593 −$593 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 22 $1,340 −$1,340 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $525 −$525 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $360 −$360 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Taipei: Funa Kozaki vs Gyeong Seo Lee BUY Funa Kozaki 24¢ $20 21m
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Toronto Tempo 12¢ $15 22m
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Nicolas Villalon BUY Nicolas Villalon 14¢ $21 22m
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $102 1h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon BUY Ignacio Monzon 9¢ $51 3h
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Toronto Tempo 12¢ $10 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Felipe Meligeni Alves 9¢ $21 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 5¢ $10 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios BUY Marco Cecchinato 7¢ $21 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 3¢ $0 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios BUY Marco Cecchinato 20¢ $10 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 3¢ $21 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Si BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 22¢ $10 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno BUY Gonzalo Bueno 7¢ $10 7h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan SELL Fabian Marozsan 100¢ $118 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Pedro Boscardin Dias 4¢ $38 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Alex Barrena BUY Alex Barrena 8¢ $31 10h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Fabian Marozsan 17¢ $20 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 9¢ $21 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 20¢ $11 10h
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan BUY Akira Santillan 12¢ $21 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Gauthier Onclin BUY Lorenzo Giustino 4¢ $10 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Juan Pablo Ficovich BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 6¢ $21 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Moreno De Alboran vs Harold Mayo BUY Nicolas Moreno De Alboran 5¢ $10 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Arthur Gea BUY Raul Brancaccio 22¢ $96 10h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $57 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 12h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 19¢ $51 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.54 · official $256.54 (match) · 70 history records