Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x0373…4057 sports 1129 markets active 2h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,544 (+1%) realized +$1,473 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%493W / 615L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$1,238est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,804
7 days+$4,321
14 days+$6,588
30 days+$5,379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$1,287
other 9% +$1,802
world 0% +$217
crypto 0% +$158
politics 0% +$19
finance 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +27.4% +15.2% 66% 64% +15.8%
≤30d 167 +13.6% +2.8% 52% 51% +6.2%
≤90d 660 +3.5% -6.4% 47% 47% -5.9%
all 1108 +7.1% -3.1% 44% 43% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 43% -7.1%
10% -12.3% 42% -16.0%
15% -20.8% 41% -24.1%
20% -28.6% 38% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$106 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$2,543
Realized+$1,473
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses493 / 615
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,238
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1108 / 1129
History coverage205d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $1,180 $1,230 +$50 (+4%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 62¢ 64¢ $992 $1,016 +$24 (+2%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $600 +$300 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $533 +$267 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 +$5 +18%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,059 +$461 +44%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $510 −$504 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $508 +$511 +101%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $105 +$57 +55%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $800 −$549 -69%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $494 +$466 +94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $318 +$282 +89%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,004 +$495 +49%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,030 −$1,030 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21 Jun 22 $606 +$269 +44%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $375 +$410 +109%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $374 −$369 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $605 +$345 +57%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- Jun 21 $607 +$377 +62%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $303 +$138 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $125 +$87 +70%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $90 +$194 +216%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $203 +$189 +93%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $201 +$40 +20%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $90 +$162 +180%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $173 +$127 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $125 −$123 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $304 −$15 -5%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $125 −$123 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $603 +$297 +49%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $398 +$291 +73%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$290 +284%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $90 +$130 +144%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $198 +$102 +52%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $191 −$189 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$53 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $615 +$295 +48%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7 −$6 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $137 +$93 +67%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $52 +$68 +133%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $107 −$106 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $246 +$194 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $305 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $1,003 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? A BUY 57¢ $1,012 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,195 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $600 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $533 23h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $510 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $1,059 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 33h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 SELL Under 60¢ $242 34h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 SELL Under 60¢ $9 34h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $800 34h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $190 35h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $304 37h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $318 38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 46h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 49¢ $508 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,542.81 · official $3,541.81 · 3195 history records