Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0370…bf33 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized −$20 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$11
sports 18% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -24.1% -31.4% 33% 33% -23.9%
≤30d 6 -24.1% -31.4% 33% 33% -23.9%
≤90d 6 -24.1% -31.4% 33% 33% -23.9%
all 6 -24.1% -31.4% 33% 33% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 33% -23.9%
10% -37.9% 33% -31.2%
15% -43.9% 33% -37.8%
20% -49.4% 33% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$35 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage13d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $131 $164 +$33 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 73¢ 50¢ $75 $51 −$24 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $61 +$41 +67%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $12 −$12 -98%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $62 +$40 +64%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $60 −$24 -41%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $102 −$37 -36%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $66 −$65 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.59 · official $338.67 (match) · 31 history records