Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0370…924b crypto 390 markets active 2d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-6%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate50%192W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.8% -22.0% 71% 57% -22.1%
≤30d 386 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 21% -16.2%
≤90d 386 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 21% -16.2%
all 386 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 21% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 21% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 3% -24.2%
15% -29.5% 1% -31.6%
20% -36.4% 1% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses192 / 194
Open positions0
Markets (closed)386 / 390
History coverage19d
Avg bet$0
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 386 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $0 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1136 history records