Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x036f…e2ff weather 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate87%81W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$3
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -9.8% -18.3% 70% 10% -18.3%
≤30d 67 -5.3% -14.3% 84% 4% -14.3%
≤90d 93 -3.4% -12.6% 87% 3% -12.6%
all 93 -3.4% -12.6% 87% 3% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 3% -12.6%
10% -20.9% 0% -20.9%
15% -28.6% 0% -28.6%
20% -35.6% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses81 / 12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage34d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Yes 87¢ 83¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Yes 84¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Yes 87¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 -48%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22? May 23 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.63 · official $2.63 (match) · 187 history records